Reuters - Share markets were mostly lower on Monday as oil prices popped higher again amid doubts the
United States and Iran will reach a truce anytime soon, keeping bonds under pressure ahead of a week packed with economic news.
Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, claiming Tehran was desperate to make a deal. Trump said talks would continue this week, though Iran shows no sign of watering down its proposals.
Brent futures rose 2.1% to $106.49 a barrel, bringing gains so far this month to almost 18%, while US crude futures added 1.5% to $93.84 a barrel.
A dearth of refining capacity has in turn lifted
diesel prices to all-time highs far above crude, raising the risk that inflation will become embedded in pricing and wage decisions.
Central banks have responded with a round of rate hikes, with the Reserve Bank of Australia likely to be the next to tighten when it meets on Tuesday.
Markets now imply a 66% chance the Federal Reserve will hike for a second straight meeting in October, with around 90 basis points of tightening priced out to late next year.
At the same time, a run of strong
US economic data has supported expectations for corporate earnings even as bond yields surge, so underpinning equities.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow measure is forecasting growth of a racy 5.0% for this quarter. Activity has also proven upbeat in Asia and Europe, thanks in part to the boom in AI investment.
"The global expansion appears to have entered a phase of broad-based strength rarely seen over the past two decades," said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan.
"Amidst strong growth and firming perceptions of resilience to high energy prices, it is no surprise that rates are moving higher while equity prices remain close to record levels," he added. "What is most notable about recent market moves is their extension of higher policy rates well beyond the coming year."
BONDS FEAR HIGHER FOR LONGER
Japan's Nikkei went flat, while the volatile South Korean stock market slid 2.4%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.6%.
Chinese blue chips slid 1.4%, and are down more than 5% for the month.
On Wall Street, S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, while Nasdaq futures shed 0.5%. In Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures firmed 0.4%, while DAX futures gained 0.3% and FTSE futures added 0.2%.
Yields on 30-year Treasuries nudged up to 5.5185%, near their highest since 2004, having climbed 27 basis points just this month. Two-year yields have shot up 55 basis points this month in anticipation of Fed hikes.
Mark Cabana, a rate strategist at Bank of America, sees further room for bonds to sell off as markets price higher Fed Funds.
"The repricing may not stop until there's clear evidence that financial conditions have become sufficiently restrictive," he warned.
