This brief report of the Perceived Economic Opportunity (PEO) presents the analysis of a random survey carried out using a random sample of 400 men and women covering all districts in Sri Lanka on their expectations of economic prospects in the ensuing twelve months.

STATUS OF JOB PROSPECTS OR BUSINESS PERFORMANCE

Analysis of the perceived economic opportunities in the months of October, November and December 2018 indicate that the expectations in terms of job prospects of people or developing the status of their business in the ensuing 12 months has decreased compared to the third quarter of the year 2018.

The expectation increased in the month of October 2018 and showed a gradual decrease in the months of November and December. However, the average of the three months showed a decreased compared to the third quarter of 2018.

This uncertainty owing to the unprecedented political transformation that took place in Sri Lanka in November 2018 can be a reason for the decrease, and the rupee was rapidly depreciating against the foreign exchange during this period.

Earnings from tourism and foreign remittances also slowed during this period and foreign direct investments to government securities and the stock exchange was affected due to increased international interest rates and political instability.

In recent times, the depreciation of the rupee has slowed down, however, in November 2018 the rupee was depreciated by 12.9% against the US Dollar. The remittances of foreign workers fell 13% in December 2018, the Central Bank said.

The below graph shows the change of expectations in terms of job prospects of people, or development of the status of their business, in the ensuing 12 months in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter.

Refer the graph 01 below;

ABILITY TO SAVE

According to the analysis in the fourth quarter (October, November, December) 2018, the expectation among the people to save a little more from their personal earnings in the ensuing 12 months has decreased compared to the third quarter of the year 2018.  Please Refer the Graph 02;

It shows that the expectation has increased noticeably in the month of October 2018 and decreased gradually.

EXPECTATION FOR REDUCTION OF CORRUPTION

The expectation for reduction of corruption in the country showed a significant gradual decrease in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared to the increasing trend in the third quarter. The instability of the political situation in the country may have affected the decease.

Please Refer the Graph 03;

PEO; Perceived Economic Opportunity is developed and surveyed by the Foundation for Economic Freedom in Sri Lanka. PepperCube Consultants carry out field research covering the entire country.

The Perceived Economic Opportunity was developed and is measured by the Foundation for Economic Freedom in Sri Lanka (FEF) in partnership with Friedrich Naumann Stiftung Fur Die Freiheit.