Asia-Pacific (APAC) commodity issuers are likely to see divergent credit effects if the Iran conflict prolongs disruption to Gulf energy supply and shipping, Fitch Ratings says. Upstream producers would benefit from higher realised prices, while the cost inflation would pressure the margins of downstream, energy- and feedstock-intensive sectors. Higher input prices pose the main risk for chemicals, fertilisers and some metals, while interruptions to shipping could further strain working capital through delays and goods stuck at sea. Our primary tail risk is an extended Strait of Hormuz shutdown, though we expect disruptions to be brief.

Upstream oil and gas producers are likely to benefit first as buyers scramble for replacement cargoes. Buyers turning to producers in Australia, Malaysia and Indonesia, which offer immediate alternatives, would boost prices and cash flow for issuers such as Santos (BBB/Stable), Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (BBB-/Stable) and PT Pertamina Hulu Energi (BBB/Stable). By contrast, downstream refiners, including Indian oil companies such as Indian Oil Corporation (BBB-/Stable), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BBB-/Stable) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (BBB-/Stable), would face margin and working-capital pressure if input prices rise faster than they can pass through costs to customers. The risk is greater where fuel prices are regulated or crude supply disruptions force production cuts once inventories are depleted. PT Pertamina (Persero) (BBB/Stable) could see rising government compensation receivables for selling certain gasoline and diesel grades below market prices, pressuring cash flow. Refiners with ample domestic crude supply, such as Vietnam’s Binh Son (BB+/Stable), are less exposed.

Rising gas prices could also support thermal coal demand in east Asia if buyers switch to coal from gas, particularly in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Liquefied natural gas prices are likely to climb if Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility is closed, as it accounts for about 20% of global supply. This would mostly favour Australian exporters in the near term, given their role in supplying high-energy thermal coal to east Asia, with Indonesian exporters also supported. Newcastle coal futures had already gained about 9% to USD129 a ton on 3 March 2026.

Gulf supply disruption would also affect the metals market, though the impact on producers is likely to vary, as stronger prices could be offset by increased power and logistics costs. The Middle East accounts for about 8%-9% of global aluminium production. We believe Chinese producers, including Aluminum Corporation of China (BBB+/Stable) and China Hongqiao Group (BB+/Stable), are better positioned to benefit from tighter global supply and elevated prices, as their power availability and tariffs are more stable. Conversely, steeper power prices in Japan and South Korea could pressure margins. Copper faces mixed pressure. Supply-chain disruption supports near-term copper prices, but higher outlays to ship from South America and Africa narrow margins, alongside rising energy prices. High power prices could also weaken global growth, reducing copper demand and pushing prices lower. Meanwhile, gold miners benefit as geopolitical risks boost demand.

The implications for steel producers are mostly negative, as logistics bottlenecks for ore imports and rising energy prices raise unit costs, while exports to the Middle East, which comprised about 15% of Chinese steel exports in 2025, could soften.

The Gulf region also plays an important role in global fertiliser trade. We believe an extended conflict would have a mixed impact on fertiliser manufacturers, as stronger selling prices could be offset by sharp increases in natural gas input costs.

Chemicals producers face high risk from a prolonged conflict, as elevated oil and gas prices would lift naphtha feedstock costs and compress margins. This poses particular risk for issuers with weaker rating headroom, such as PTT Global Chemical Public Company (BBB-/Stable).