By Samitha Hettige

The 11^th ‘Nishan’ forum (named after the ‘Nishan’ mountain) on world civilizations under the theme ‘Beauty in Diversity’ was held in Qufu, Shandong (Eastern China) last week. It is the birth place of Chinese philosopher Confucius. Scholars from more than 70 countries explored the interactions between cultural diversity & modernization with special focus on the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in shaping the future of humanity (Ref. Media).

The Sri Lankan civilization with a recorded history of over 2500 years is one of the oldest with links to Persian, Indian & Chinese civilizations. Sri Lanka has had different conflict provocative & preventive experiences with them & others including the Portuguese, Dutch & the British after 1505 AD.

Sri Lankan Struggles (Aragala).

Most Sri Lankan struggles were with South Indians except for a few with Portuguese (at Mulleriyawa) & British (at Uva Wellassa). Some view that trading with the Chinese (at ‘Trincomalee’) & the Persians (at ‘Godawaya’ port in Ambalantota) caused the struggles with South Indians. Relocating of the capital due to South Indian pressure was referred to as external threats & not as attempts on ‘regime change’. Although not specifically mentioned, when Sri Lanka was forced to relocate the capital or change a ruler there may have been external players (Ref. the last battle of Kashyapa at Sigiriya/ Mahavansa).

Although Portuguese & the Dutch didn’t attempt system change, one may argue that British did the 1^st ‘Aragalaya’ in Sri Lanka by introducing the universal adult franchise in 1931 (Ref. President RW). Although suitable for matured communities, it may have been a tool lowered from top to manipulate masses at the wish of a handler. Analyzing the electorate behavior since 1948, it questions if Sri Lankans had the capacity to see the broader meaning of stable governance. Sri Lankan electoral records indicate the appointments, defeats & reappointments of Presidents, Prime Ministers & governments. Those interested may analyze the timings to see if there was a link to geopolitics.

Lesson from Lula

Brazilian President Lula da Silva who was appointed, defeated & re-appointed many times in a democratic system is a Socialist politician & a pioneer in the BRICS organization. When he received Trump’s tariff letter, he indicated retaliatory tariffs if USA doesn’t negotiate a fair deal (as his congress recently passed laws empowering him to retaliate against trade barriers - Ref. Media). USA is Brazil’s 3^rd largest trading partner after China & the EU (Ref. Brazil media). Since Brazil is economically strong, Lula will have bargaining power. However, unless Lula is cautious, he & his government may experience difficult democratic flavors. Since he is a star in the multi polar world & a partner of the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) of China, he has better chances to withstand. Those interested may observe.

In the emerging multi polar world, India also is a player & a fellow of BRICS with Brazil. Persons with Indian origins are influential in US & UK multinationals. India’s mega markets are inviting places where US companies mint money. Therefore, Trump tariffs on India may easily be paid with negotiations (probably nothing to do with India) with internal strength & high volumes of inward remittances especially from the US & UK. As reported in media Sri Lanka signed few agreements with India recently. In case if India isn’t happy on the Sri Lankan speed in implementing same, it may persuade. How would they do it & will powerful partners help? Indo US bilateral trade volumes might provide information when answering.

The message from Beijing

Chinese foreign ministry last week stated that Trump’s tariffs should not be used as a tool to coerce or bully other countries, or to interfere in other countries' internal affairs. Especially referring to Brazil, Chinese stand is sovereign equality & non-interference in internal affairs. They are important principles of the Charter of the United Nations & basic norms governing international relations (Ref. Chinese Foreign Ministry). Sri Lanka was part of the ancient Silk Road & is a partner of the BRI. BRI if properly used may help Sri Lanka to withstand obstacles. Sri Lankans may study the Chinese message.

Domestic policy can only defeat us; foreign policy can kill us! John F. Kennedy

Views expressed are personal (Photo source www).