Sri Lanka could face renewed food inflation pressures as global fertilizer prices surge sharply amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, a senior economist from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) warned today (10).

Addressing the launch of the Asian Development Outlook - April 2026 in Colombo, Ms. Liliya Aleksanyan highlighted that non-energy commodity prices, particularly fertilizers have risen significantly in recent weeks.

“Urea prices have jumped by over 50%, while ammonia prices have increased by nearly 40% since late February,” she said, noting that these inputs are critical for agricultural production.

The sharp rise in fertilizer costs is expected to increase production expenses for Sri Lanka’s farming sector, potentially leading to reduced crop yields in the coming months if the trend persists.

“This, in turn, could push up domestic food prices and add to inflationary pressures later in the year,” Aleksanyan cautioned.

The warning comes at a time when Sri Lanka is still rebuilding its economic buffers following recent crises, making it particularly vulnerable to external shocks.

Beyond fertilizers, the economist also pointed to broader global risks, including elevated energy prices, tightening financial conditions, and trade uncertainties, all of which could compound inflationary pressures.

She noted that while energy prices remain a key concern, rising agricultural input costs represent an additional and often delayed channel through which global shocks transmit into domestic inflation.

As Sri Lanka navigates its recovery path, sustained increases in fertilizer prices could pose a significant challenge to maintaining food price stability and overall economic resilience.