Quick Response for Conflict Prevention – By Prof. Samitha Hettige

August, 7, 2023

Renowned Fitch Ratings agency in a quick move downgraded US debt from AAA to AA+. It may not be surprising to many analysts who were following the situation. One may think it was due to the conflict within the US government on raising the debt ceiling but the real cause may be the increasing of US debt. Therefore, not only crisis affected small nations such as SL, even the world’s policeman will have to take quick response moves to be stable. The US may be feeling strong as the USD is an accepted "Reserve Currency," still they should remember that ground reality in the operating economy should maintain mechanisms to face the developments in the physical economy. Small nations who depend largely on the USD must be aware that more states are now ignoring the USD during bilateral trade. Those interested should study Lyndon LaRouche’s "Triple Curve" which indicates the expansion of the real economy, the growth of debt & the payment incurred on that debt (Ref. US sources). It is up to US policy makers to analyze the reactions to the Fitch decision as the US for many years is living outside its income primarily spending on conflicts (with Ukraine on top) in simple terms. Sri Lankans known for conflicting attitudes & living beyond their income for the last seven decades hit the ceiling nearly a year ago. As a result the state had to introduce new methods on crisis recovery.

QR Code

On 1st August 2022 in a move to; resolve the social conflict (Aragalaya), cut down costs on fuel imports & save the environment in the long run SL exposed its citizens to the QR experience. The QR code (quick response code) which was invented by Denso of Japan in the 1990s has proven to be an efficient tool to reduce waste in all sectors (Ref. Japanese sources). The digital version of the good old “Haal potha” (Rice quota book) was a new experience & it should be expanded to all sectors to make a stronger economy with minimum wastage. The fuel distribution process in SL took an unnecessary turn in 1960s when Sirima B government nationalized the process. Nationalizing plantations is also seen by many as an unnecessary step which increased wastage. It is also seen as a major blow to the economic efficiency in SL which laid the base for the current crisis as well. Her daughter President CBK managed to get Shell Gas back in SL in 1990s & during the UNP rule in early 2000s Indian Oil Company got strategically involved. However, the unarmed silent majority was continuously terrorized by those who used the state fuel monopoly for political gains. The latest actor is Sinopec which entered on the invitation of SL. Reducing monopolies is good for the average citizen & they should know that Sinopec is a fortune 500 company which was among the top five for 10 consecutive years delivering petroleum products & services to the world. It is the largest oil & petrochemical supplier & the second largest oil & gas producer in the Peoples Republic of China (PRC). Sinopec is the largest refining company & the 3rd largest chemical company in the world. Without the 150 odd gas stations it is supposed to manage in SL, it is the 2nd largest gas stations managing company in the world (Ref Sinopec sources).

Marine seismic exploration along the Belt & Road

"Sea Pulse" (Haimai) is the latest seismic exploration sensor developed by Chinese engineers. It went into operation recently in the deep seas off China. Chinese sources indicate that it is a significant milestone on offshore oil & natural gas exploration. It is an undersea seismic data acquisition equipment which uses ultra low noise acquisition circuit to detect weak signals with super sensitivity etc. The "Sea Pulse," can detect seismic waves 10KM under the seabed. The strength of the signals it can capture is equal to 1/150 of the sound of a mosquito. China's oil & gas exploration has increased to a level where its offshore crude oil output in 2022 reached 58 million tonnes. Offshore crude oil is China's main force to increase its overall output of crude oil needed to energize expanded trade along the Belt & Road network (Ref. China National Offshore Oil Corporation).  The silent peace loving majority in SL should not allow terrorism in any form which will force them to embrace poverty.