November, 30, 2021
By: Charith Gamage
Cryptocurrencies together with Decentralised Finance (DeFi), the finance ecosystem that extends cryptocurrencies into banking territory, can positively impact developing countries. But it is not quite so straightforward and is still a double-edged sword for developing markets like Sri Lanka. So, how should the country position itself to face the key challenges ahead?
Since its inception following the Global Financial Crisis in 2007-2008, as an alternate digital asset, cryptocurrency has always been a two-edged sword, abundantly subjected to scepticism.
Some of this scepticism has a rationale behind it. Cryptocurrencies do not have an underlying cash flow, such as that for stocks of firms, nor do they have an inherent material value, such as for assets like gold. Being located inches away from the regulatory radar, they can also be equally prone to criminal activities. If that is not enough, bitcoin mining, the process by which new transactions are validated on the network, consumes a lot of energy. So, despite being a crypto enthusiast, even billionaire Elon Musk once stated, it has an environmental impact, too [1].
In the face of these challenges, the recent cryptocurrency price surge with the Covid-19 Pandemic has taken many by surprise. What caused the market to embrace them, spearheaded by its most popular type, Bitcoin's spiralling 600%+ rally? According to crypto proponents, the value stems primarily from its design that can self-sustain as an alternative decentralised system to the traditional systems. In other words, the market is ready to pay the price for its ability to function as an asset over which no centralised person or authority has control. So, the claim, as the pandemic engulfed global economies, is that investors may have lost faith in central bank policies and their pursuit for an alternate asset that has resulted in this price movement.
DeFi, on the other hand, extends this concept and allows cryptocurrencies to function in a decentralised banking environment that may even have immense benefits to developing countries. As the debate continues, it is worth finding out more on the recent emergence of DeFi; how could it unlock the potential of Emerging/Frontier markets, and at what cost? What are the key hurdles to pull the meat from the bone moving forward?
What is DeFi, and how does it work?
The idea of DeFi is more broad-based than one of its workhorses, cryptocurrencies, which most are familiar with as a medium of exchange or store of value, and it builds on a fundamental structure known as the blockchain. The system allows it to operate without the need for intermediaries, such as traditional financial institutions like conventional commercial banks, brokerages, and of course, authorities such as central banks. However, it has its own ecosystem that recreates the traditional financial system. So, it is logical to say that DeFi refers to the decentralised banking and financial system that the technology is based on and includes components such as lending and borrowing services for cryptocurrencies (and many more). To put it simply, it is an alternative banking system in the digital space with digital currencies that has no middlemen (such as commercial or central banks who have controlling power) and with rules that are already written into it. Today, it mostly runs on the Ethereum blockchain, the second most popular currency after Bitcoin. DeFi has rapidly evolved in recent years, and, for example, Aave, Marker, and Curve Finance are the biggest lending systems in this space, with the sum of all assets deposited in DeFi closer to 45 billion USD [2].
Without banks or lawyers, as in the traditional financial system, DeFi is built with smart contracts, a self-executing contract built on the blockchain when predetermined conditions are met, and allows economic agents such as the general public and firms to engage in banking activities.
Because this architecture differs fundamentally from bringing the same traditional banking into the digital space, as happens in online banking, many can see that it will benefit developing countries when traditional financial systems fall apart. Nevertheless, it comes at a cost, where the country needs to overcome challenges to harness its potential.
Why exploring DeFi is pronounced in emerging and developing markets
It is not a secret that the lack of financial intermediation in the developing world under the conventional system hinders their economic potential. Although Sri Lanka's unbanked population (26%) is somewhat lower than the global average (31%), it is unclear how certain groups' failure to conform to formal regulations and paperwork around these institutions distances them from the entire expected services they desire (Data Source Findex 2017). On the other hand, economic agents have fewer investment opportunities to invest their wealth for a better return in economies with underdeveloped markets. DeFi seems to have better answers to those questions.
For example, a UNICEF project shows that DeFi can uplift those lives [3]. The project, Satchel, a Blockchain-based DeFi service created by a research group from Berkeley, helps fulfil the financial needs of those underprivileged communities by allowing them to pool their funds together and earn interest. The concept could be extended to pool their money and lend it out to small businesses; in this way, the community can use the interest earned for their purposes while the local small businesses fulfil their funding needs. So, DeFi can thus give an alternative, if not more than that, to regular banking, for small businesses and communities in rural regions, even if they are unable to satisfy the criteria of traditional banking.
Apart from improving financial inclusion among rural communities, DeFi clearly has other benefits with proper education, such as an efficient cross-border fund transfer for businesses and remittances. Sending remittance through cryptocurrency can gain more attention in the future as a low-cost solution for ordinary remittance transfers and currency conversions that can eat up as much as 7% of those flows. Also, DeFi can be easily integrated with the Universal Basic Income (UBI) programmes discussed in a previous article that empower low-income communities to lead the economy[4].
Most importantly, decentralisation allows the market to gain alternative power over the ability of traditional institutions to control the market by devaluing or increasing the money supply or by imposing unhealthy regulations on certain sectors. This balance could be healthy for the economy as it brings competition to the market over the conventional institutions.
What are the key challenges to be solved?
Although DeFi has the potential to boost economic activities, proper integration with society needs much more effort, including the development of digital infrastructure and literacy. A recent Daily FT editorial highlighted this challenge, citing that digitisation efforts will not be fruitful unless the underlying foundation is strengthened [5].
In addition, the emergence of an alternate banking system via DeFi can cause unprecedented challenges to economies. Of course, it can create "systemic risks" and propagate instabilities in conventional financial systems, depending on how interlaced they are. Having dominated the conventional monetary system, they can also lessen the effectiveness of the monetary tools and power of the institutions such as central banks. Although these discussions are still rudimentary, given that economics related to DeFi have not been tested at scale, they will be more hot topics as the technology grows.
On the other hand, DeFi regulation is one of the most daunting tasks, as exemplified by the experiences of many countries that are currently trying to combat it. At the moment, bringing capital gain income from crypto assets under the tax net, regulating crypto exchanges to avoid the misuse of technology, and curbing phoney cryptocurrency schemes, are the most popular topics in this space. Meanwhile, a Forbes article, citing an expert report by Chainalysis, shows that crypto in criminal activities is not as large as commonly believed [6]. While this fraction was deficient, 2.1% in 2019 and 0.34% in 2020 out of the total transaction volume, the article shows that the traditional non-crypto methods may still facilitate illicit activities much more frequently than these methods. Although this is a positive indication for authorities to welcome the technology, there is no guarantee that they would be exacerbated in the developing nations with relatively weaker institutions once popularised. With that being said, the overregulation approach may not be the best answer, but the easiest and costliest approach that wipes out complete benefits in the dash for DeFi.
The Way Forward
Despite the debate around cryptocurrency, the decentralised currency together with DeFi, the alternate decentralised financial system, undoubtedly can cause a significant impact on the developing world to increase the productivity of those economies. In particular, it is more pronounced to allow financial intermediation for those who found refuge under the conventional system for various reasons. It has gone mainstream now on Wall Street while top-level universities and researchers are involved in the development, despite all chaos surrounding cryptocurrency. More importantly, the underlying technology, blockchain, is considered one of the most promising emerging technologies at the moment.
From the Sri Lankan perspective, now it seems the government insists on looking deeply at the crypto and blockchain space[7]. This initiative is a positive sign and, if successful, will be a good foundation for exploring the ecosystem, DeFi, more broadly and carefully for better policies.
Not to mention, diving down the rabbit hole of DeFi requires a cohesive approach strengthening the digital infrastructure, facilitating a healthy Conventional-DeFi integrated ecosystem, hunting for policy instruments to combat the knock-on effects, and establishing a healthy and supportive regulatory framework. So, it will help the country shape the landscape to stay on par with the peer trading partners trying to reap the full potential of the technology under a controlled environment, and, of course, without blindly embracing it nor throwing out the baby with the bathwater.
The writer, a former Senior Assistant Director of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, is a PhD candidate attached to the Monash University, Australia. He would like to thank Abigayle Goldstein (Lobo Friends Program at University of New Mexico) for commenting on the article and helpful suggestions. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, and he could be reached via charith.gamage@monash.edu
References
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-13/musk-says-tesla-sold-about-10-of-bitcoin-holdings
[3] https://www.unicef.org/innovation/stories/generating-income-benefit-communities
[5] https://www.ft.lk/ft_view__editorial/Putting-the-digital-horse-before-the-cart/58-724453
[7] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sri-lanka-government-sets-crypto-145212060.html
Video Story
