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Perceived Economic Opportunity PEO: April, 2017

Expectation On Ability To Save And Business Performance Increses Despite The Downward Trend Of Expectation For Reduction Of Corruption

Status Of Job Prospects Or Business Performance

Analysis of the perceived economic opportunities in the month of April 2017 indicates that the expectations in terms of job prospects of people or developing the status of their business, shows a positive trend in the ensuing 12 months compared to the month of March 2017.

The expectations on the same were increased in the month of February 2017 but decreased in the month of March 2017 which was notabel due to its continues incraese from December 2016 to February 2017.

Inflation, as measured by the change in the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) (2013=100), which is compiled by the Department of Census and Statistics, decreased marginally to 8.4 per cent in April 2017 from 8.6 per cent in March 2017, on a year-on-year basis. The same, stood at 8.2 per cent in the month of February 2017.

On the external front, the export earnings, which took a down turn in the months January and February 2017 was up in the month of March 2017. Export earnings were increased by 9.8 per cent in the month of March 2017 compared to the month of March 2016.

Tourist earnings declined in March 2017, as in the previous month, with the partial closure of the Bandaranaike International Airport (BIA) for resurfacing of the runway. Meanwhile, workers’ remittances also recorded a decline in March 2017. In the financial account, foreign inflows to the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) continued to record a net inflow

Earnings from exports passed the US dollars 1 billion mark in March 2017 for the first time since March 2015, amounting to US dollars 1,042 million and registering a growth of 9.8 per cent (year-on-year). This increase was mainly led by agricultural exports, followed by industrial exports.

The expectations in terms of job prospects of people or developing the status of their business in the ensuing 12 months stood at 15 percent in the month of December 2014 and increased to 40 percent in the month of January 2015 soon after the new government assumed office.

These reasons are likely to have had an impact on the expectations of job prospects and the business activities of the people in the month of April 2017.

Ability To Save

According to the analysis in the month of April 2017, expectation among the people to save a little more from their personal earnings in the ensuing 12 months had shown an increase. The decreasing trend of inflation may have impacted mainly on this.

Expectation For Reduction Of Corruption

The higher expectation for the reduction of corruption in the country that many expected at the time the current government came into office has gradually decreased in past months.

But it is significant to note that this perception took a dramatic fall in October 2016   likely due to the much publicized issue of the probe by the Parliamentary Committee on Public Enterprises, or COPE.

The same was continued in the month of December 2016.

However, the expectation showed an increase in the month of January 2017. Sri Lanka appointed a Special Presidential Commission of Inquiry to investigate the controversial Central Bank bond issue and recommend action in the same month.

The expectation for reduction of corruption was down in the month of March 2017 compared with the month of February 2017. The same trend continued to the month of April 2017.

PEO; Perceived Economic Opportunity is developed and surveyed by the Foundation for Economic Freedom in Sri Lanka. PepperCube Consultants carry out field research covering the entire country.

 

The Perceived Economic Opportunity was developed and is measured by the Foundation for Economic Freedom in Sri Lanka (FEF) in partnership with Friedrich Naumann Stiftung Fur Die Freiheit.