manusath-derana

Perceived Economic Opportunity PEO: First Quarter 2019

August, 6, 2019

This brief report of the Perceived Economic Opportunity (PEO) presents the analysis of a random survey carried out using a random sample of 400 men and women covering all districts in Sri Lanka on their expectations of economic prospects in the ensuing twelve months of the year 2019.

 

STATUS OF JOB PROSPECTS OR BUSINESS PERFORMANCE

 

Analysis of the perceived economic opportunities in the months of January, February and March 2019 indicate that the expectations in terms of job prospects of people or developing the status of their business in the ensuing 12 months has reduced compared to the fourth quarter last year.

 

The same expectation showed a decreasing trend starting from the third quarter of 2018 for three quarters continuously. The expectations in terms of job prospects of people or developing the status of their business in the fourth quarter of 2018 were declined compared to the third quarter of 2018.

 

The uncertainty caused by the unexpected political transformation in Sri Lanka, especially in November 2018, may have contributed to the lowering of expectations and the rupee also depreciated against the foreign exchange in the same period.  Political uncertainty in the country was also seen in the first quarter of the year 2019.

 

Sri Lanka’s real economic growth slowed during the period, the Central Bank said. Earnings from tourism increased during the first quarter of 2019, but remittances by foreign workers declined.

 

Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) said that credit to the private sector, which is vital for the expansion of the country's economic activities, declined sharply in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared to the first two months of 2019.

 

Sri Lanka’s inflation is expected to remain in the range of 4% - 6% for the year 2019 and beyond.

 

The below graph shows the change of expectations in terms of job prospects of people, or development of the status of their business, in the ensuing 12 months.

 

Refer the graph 01 below;

 

 

ABILITY TO SAVE

 

According to the analysis in the months of January, February and March 2019 (First quarter), the expectation among the people to save a little more from their personal earnings in the ensuing 12 months has decreased compared to the fourth quarter 2018.  Please Refer the Graph 02;

 

EXPECTATION FOR REDUCTION OF CORRUPTION

 

The expectation for reduction of corruption in the country showed a significant positive trend in the first quarter of 2019 compared to the fourth quarter of 2018.

 

Please Refer the Graph 03;

 

 

 

PEO; Perceived Economic Opportunity is developed and surveyed by the Foundation for Economic Freedom in Sri Lanka. PepperCube Consultants carry out field research covering the entire country.